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Cargo sector eyes capacity, cost pressures after PM’s economic appeal

PM Narendra Modi’s appeal to reduce fuel consumption, avoid non-essential foreign travel, and limit gold purchases amid global uncertainty is expected to have ripple effects across India’s logistics and air cargo industry. While the move may temporarily impact belly cargo capacity and high-value shipments, industry leaders believe it could also accelerate efficiency, sustainability, and smarter supply chain planning across the sector.

Ritika Arora Bhola

At a time when global conflicts, rising fuel prices, and economic uncertainty are weighing heavily on international trade, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has called on Indians to adopt a more cautious spending approach — from consuming less fuel and avoiding unnecessary foreign travel to reducing gold purchases. While the appeal is rooted in economic prudence and the need to safeguard India’s foreign exchange reserves, its implications could extend far beyond consumer behaviour and into the heart of India’s logistics and cargo ecosystem.

For India’s logistics industry, which is already navigating geopolitical tensions, fluctuating freight rates, and volatile fuel costs, the Prime Minister’s message signals a period of operational caution. Industry experts believe the measures could temporarily soften demand across certain cargo segments, particularly in aviation-linked logistics, while also pushing companies towards tighter cost management, sustainable transportation, and more resilient supply chain strategies.

One of the immediate concerns for the air cargo industry is the possible reduction in passenger flight frequencies if non-essential international travel declines. Since a substantial portion of global air freight moves through passenger aircraft belly capacity, fewer flights could directly impact cargo availability and freight economics.

Vikram Kumar, Vice President, Air Cargo Agents Association of India (ACAAI), believes the Prime Minister’s appeal reflects the growing need for economic prudence amid rising fuel prices, currency pressures, and global uncertainty.

According to Kumar, reduced non-essential travel could affect passenger flight frequencies and consequently belly cargo capacity, while lower gold imports may soften high-value cargo volumes. He noted that freight forwarders and logistics companies are likely to closely monitor capacity planning, fuel surcharges, inventory cycles, and expansion decisions until geopolitical conditions stabilise.

Interestingly, the impact of the Prime Minister’s message is already influencing industry behaviour. In support of the government’s vision and national interest, ACAAI has decided to organise its landmark 50th Annual Convention within India instead of hosting it overseas, thereby supporting domestic tourism and economic activity.

The concern around gold imports is particularly significant for the air cargo sector. Gold remains one of the major high-value commodities transported through air freight channels, especially on international trade routes linking India with the Middle East and other global markets. Any moderation in gold imports could therefore reduce premium cargo movement and impact revenues for certain logistics operators.

At the same time, experts say the broader message behind the appeal is not merely about restriction but about long-term resilience and efficiency.

Nomita Kothari, CEO, Newglobe Logistik, believes the appeal is largely driven by rising risks linked to the West Asia conflict and aims to reduce import dependence, curb foreign exchange outflows, and encourage fuel efficiency.

She sees the development as an opportunity for the logistics industry to accelerate its transition towards operational efficiency and sustainable transportation models. According to Kothari, greater adoption of work-from-home practices and increased use of public transport may ease urban congestion, potentially improving last-mile delivery efficiency in major cities. She also points to faster electric vehicle adoption as a key long-term benefit that could help reduce fuel dependency across logistics operations.

For many logistics companies, the current environment may act as a trigger to reassess business models and focus on optimisation rather than expansion.

CK Govil, CMD, Activair Airfreight, echoed concerns around the impact on passenger flights and belly cargo capacity. According to him, reduced non-essential travel could increase freight costs on certain sectors, while restrictions on gold imports may soften high-value cargo movement.

However, Govil believes such developments can also encourage logistics providers to diversify cargo portfolios and focus more strongly on essential commodities, exports, multimodal connectivity, and operational optimisation.

His comments reflect a growing sentiment within the industry that volatility is becoming the new normal for global trade. As a result, logistics companies are being forced to build more agile and diversified supply chain networks capable of adapting quickly to disruptions.

The aviation sector, in particular, remains highly vulnerable to fuel price fluctuations. Industry estimates suggest Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) accounts for nearly 35–40 per cent of airline operating costs, making fuel efficiency and route optimisation critical during periods of instability.

Vandana Singh, Chairperson, Aviation Cargo, Federation of Aviation Industry in India (FAII), believes the Prime Minister’s appeal reflects the economic caution arising from fuel volatility and geopolitical uncertainty, both of which have a direct bearing on aviation and logistics.

She noted that any reduction in international travel could affect passenger frequencies and consequently belly cargo capacity, which currently carries a significant share of global air freight. Given India’s strong trade relationship with the Gulf region, disruptions in West Asia could directly influence cargo movement, freight economics, and trade continuity.

Yet Singh also emphasised that such periods often accelerate operational discipline across the industry through better fuel management, cargo consolidation, multimodal integration, and smarter supply chain planning.

The Indian logistics sector has weathered multiple global disruptions over the past few years — from the pandemic and supply chain bottlenecks to geopolitical conflicts and inflationary pressures. Industry leaders now believe the current environment is another reminder that resilience, efficiency, and strategic preparedness will define the future of logistics trade.

While PM Modi’s appeal may temporarily impact certain cargo segments and business volumes, it is also pushing the industry to rethink how supply chains operate in an increasingly uncertain world. For logistics companies, the road ahead may not simply be about moving cargo faster, but about moving it smarter, leaner, and more sustainably.

 

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