Another rise in air cargo market demand in February 2026, up 6 per cent year-on-year, continued the encouraging spike in volumes seen over the previous two months, and signalled underlying market resilience. This despite the level of global trade and economic turbulence experienced over the past year. But, five days into March, and with conflict now escalating in the Middle East, the market outlook is, once again, open to question, say industry analysts Xeneta. Air cargo growth now hinges on the duration—and eventual outcome—of conflict in the Middle East. In the first 48 hours of the conflict, demand on the main Asia–Europe and Asia–Middle East lanes fell sharply. By destination, inbound volumes to Europe proved more resilient than those to the Middle East. Some Asia–Europe freight could be rerouted, or shifted to direct services into Europe, skirting the most affected airspace. By origin, the steepest declines came from South and Southeast Asia, where capacity is more reliant on Middle Eastern carriers and hubs. Northeast Asia saw smaller falls, partly because week 8 coincided with Lunar New Year, leaving demand already subdued and the comparisons flattered by a low starting point.
